1월 FOMC 의사록 핵심 내용 총정리 (feat. 정책, 물가, 경제, 고용, QT 및 금융상황)

1월 FOMC 의사록 핵심 내용 총정리 (feat. 정책, 물가, 경제, 고용, QT 및 금융상황)

 

1. 1월 FOMC 의사록 주요 내용: 정책 및 물가

- 구성원 전원, 현재 통화정책은 경제와 물가에 지속적으로 하방 압력을 가할 수 있는 제한적인 수준

(Regarding the economic outlook, participants judged that the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive and would continue to put downward pressure on economic activity and inflation.)

 

- 구성원 전원, Dual Mandate 달성에 있어 위험 요인들은 균형을 찾아 이동 중

(Participants viewed the risks to achieving the Committee's employment and inflation goals as moving into better balance.)

 

- 구성원 전원, 물가는 2023년 하반기 상당히 둔화되었지만 향후 2% 상승률을 지속적으로 유지할 수 있는지 신중하게 판단할 것

(While the inflation data had indicated significant disinflation in the second half of last year, participants observed that they would be carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation was moving down sustainably toward 2 percent.)

 

- 구성원 전원, 6개월 연율 기준으로 보면 헤드라인 PCE 상승률은 2%에 근접했으며, 근원 PCE는 2%를 소폭 하회

(On a 6-month basis, total PCE inflation was near 2 percent at an annual rate, and core PCE inflation was just below 2 percent.)

 

- 많은(many) 구성원, 고용시장이 균형을 찾아감에 따라 ‘Super Core; 물가는 점진적으로 둔화될 것

(Many participants indicated that they expected core nonhousing services inflation to gradually decline further as the labor market continued to move into better balance and wage growth moderated further.)

 

- 다양한(various) 구성원, 임대료 상승률 둔화로 주거 부문 물가도 추가 안정 가능

(Various participants noted that housing services inflation was likely to fall further as the deceleration in rents on new leases continued to pass through to measures of such inflation.)

 

- 많은(many) 구성원, 노동력 및 생산성 증가 등 공급 부문 개선은 물가 둔화 요인

(While many participants pointed to disinflationary pressures associated with improvements in aggregate supply such as increases in the labour force or better productivity growth.)

 

- 일부(a couple of) 구성원, 공급망이 정상화됨에 따라 물가 둔화 압력이 완화될 가능성

(A couple of participants judged that the downward pressure on core goods prices from the normalization of supply chains was likely to moderate.)

 

- 일부(some) 구성원, 최근 몇 년 대비 기업들은 소비자들에게 가격 인상을 전가시키기가 어려움

(Some participants pointed to reports from contacts that firms could not as easily pass on price increases to consumers or were making less frequent price adjustments than they had in recent years.)

 

- 몇몇(several) 구성원, 현재 금융 환경이 충분히 긴축적이지 않을 수 있고, 이는 인플레이션 안정을 지연시킬 수 있음

(Furthermore, several participants mentioned the risk that financial conditions were or could become less restrictive than appropriate, which could add undue momentum to aggregate demand and cause progress on inflation to stall.)

 

- 구성원 전원, 지정학적 리스크, 공급망 관련 기저효과 소멸, 임금 상승세 지속은 물가 상방 압력 요인들

(Participants also noted some other sources of upside risks to inflation, including possible disruptions to supply chains from geopolitical developments, a potential rebound in core goods prices as the effects of supply-side improvements dissipate, or the possibility that wage growth remains elevated.)

 

- 몇몇(a few) 구성원, 우호적인 공급 측면에 기인한 강한 경제 활동은 물가의 둔화 요인

(A few participants mentioned the possibility that economic activity could surprise to the upside and inflation to the downside because of more-favourable-than-expected supply-side developments.)

 

- 구성원 전원, 기준금리는 정점에 도달

(Participants judged that the policy rate was likely at its peak for this tightening cycle.)

 

- 구성원 전원, 물가가 지속적인 2% 상승세를 보일 것이라는 확신이 들기 전까지는 기준금리를 유지하는 것이 적절

(Participants generally noted that they did not expect it would be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.)

 

- 대부분(most) 구성원, 섣부른 정책 완화 위험을 경계할 필요

(Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy)

 

- 일부(a couple of) 구성원, 지나친 긴축의 장기화 리스크를 경계할 필요

(A couple of participants, however, pointed to downside risks to the economy associated with maintaining an overly restrictive stance for too long.) restrictive than appropriate, which could add undue momentum to aggregate demand and cause progress on inflation to stall.)

 

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2. 1월 FOMC 의사록 주요 내용: 경제 및 고용

- 구성원 전원, 강력했던 4분기 GDP 성장은 예상치를 상회한 순수출, 설비투자를 반영한 것. 두 요인은 변동성이 크기 때문에 성장 추세를 정확히 반영하지 못할 수 있음

(Participants observed that the unexpected strength in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected stronger-than-expected net exports and inventory investment, which tend to be volatile and may carry little signal for future growth.)

 

- 많은(many) 구성원, 경기 호조는 강한 수요 외에도 우호적인 공급 환경에 기인

(In addition to strong demand, many participants attributed the recent expansion in economic activity to favourable supply developments.)

 

- 다수(a number of) 구성원, 소득 증가세 둔화, 초과 저축 감소로 금년 소비 증가세도 완만해질 것

(A number of participants judged that consumption growth was likely to moderate this year, as growth in labor income was expected to slow and pandemic-related excess savings were expected to diminish.)

 

- 일부(some) 구성원, 신용카드 리볼빙 사용실적 증가, 연체율 상승 등 소비 둔화 징후 포착

(In particular, they pointed to increased usage of credit card revolving balances and buy-now-pay-later services, as well as increased delinquency rates for some types of consumer loans.)

 

- 몇몇(a few) 구성원, 영세 기업들은 자금 조달과 신용 환경이 상당히 긴축적

(A few participants remarked that financing and credit conditions were particularly challenging for small businesses.)

 

- 몇몇(a few) 구성원, 노동 공급의 추가 증가 여력이 제한적일 수 있음

(A few participants judged that further increases in labor supply may be limited.)

 

- 몇몇(several) 구성원, 최근 일자리 증가는 고용 둔화 징후가 보이는 몇몇 산업에 집중

(Several participants noted that recent job gains were concentrated in a few sectors, which, in their view, pointed to downside risks to the outlook for employment.)

 

- 구성원 전원, 작년 소비 지출을 고려하면 총 수요 모멘텀이 생각보다 강력할 가능성

(Participants noted that momentum in aggregate demand may be stronger than currently assessed, especially in light of surprisingly resilient consumer spending last year.)

 

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3. 1월 FOMC 의사록 주요 내용: QT 및 금융상황

- 구성원 전원, 작년 봄 이후 은행 시스템 리스크는 현저히 감소

(Participants observed that risks to the banking system had receded notably since last spring.)

 

- 구성원 전원, 적정 수준을 상회하는 유동성 유지 중

(Participants judged that liquidity in the financial system remained more than ample)

 

- 구성원 전원, 은행들의 유동성 압박 징후 부재

(While participants noted that they were not seeing any signs of liquidity pressures at banks.)

 

- 몇몇(several) 구성원, 비상 상황을 고려, 은행들의 연준 대출 창구 이용이 용이하도록 추가적인 개선이 필요

(Several participants noted that, as a matter of prudent contingency planning, banks should continue to improve their readiness to use the Federal Reserve's discount window, and that the Federal Reserve should continue to improve the operational efficiency of the window.)

 

- 구성원 전원, 양적 긴축 정책은 현재 수준을 유지하는 것이 적절

(All participants also judged it appropriate to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings, as described in the previously announced Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet.)

 

- 많은(many) 구성원, 빠른 RRP 잔고 소진 속도를 늦추기 위해 다음 회의에서 대차대조표 관련 심도 있는 논의가 필요

(In light of ongoing reductions in usage of the ON RRP facility, many participants suggested that it would be appropriate to begin in-depth discussions of balance sheet issues at the Committee's next meeting to guide an eventual decision to slow the pace of runoff.)

 

- 일부(some) 구성원, 적정 준비금 수준 추정치가 불확실하고, 양적 긴축의 장기화를 위해 자산 축소 속도를 늦추는 것이 적절

(Some participants remarked that, given the uncertainty surrounding estimates of the ample level of reserves, slowing the pace of runoff could help smooth the transition to that level of reserves or could allow the Committee to continue balance sheet runoff for longer.)

 

- 몇몇(a few) 구성원, 기준금리 인하 사이클에서도 양적 긴축은 한동안 지속될 가능성

(A few participants noted that the process of balance sheet runoff could continue for some time even after the Committee begins to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate.)

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국제 거시경제: FOMC 의사록, 빠른 금리 인하에 따른 리스크 우려, HSBC 홀딩스, CRE 비중 축소, 중국

 

국제 거시경제: 연준 연내 금리 3번 인하 시사, 은행 CRE 대출 집중 모니터링, 중국 증시 청신호 및

 

국제 거시경제: 중국 증시 견조한 춘절에도 기대 이하, 후티 반군 선박 공격, 4주 연속 상승중인